Preakness 2017 Trifecta
Like every year, a lot of the Preakness 2017 dialogue has focused on the new shooters; horses like Conquest Mo Money and Cloud Computing; and whether they have a chance to defeat the Kentucky Derby winner, Always Dreaming.
A field of ten or eleven horses is now anticipated for this the 142nd running of the Preakness, pretty well evenly divided between horses new to the Triple Crown series and those that ran in the Derby. However, the results from the Preakness since the year 2000 are rather interesting.
The last new shooter to win the Preakness was Bernardini in 2006, at odds of 12.90-1 when Barbaro broke down at the start of the race. Before that, it was Red Bullet at 6.20-1 in 2000, and that year the Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus was second best. That is only two new shooters in the past 17 years to find the winner’s circle, but when they do, the odds are usually very good because the Derby winner is a big favorite.
- 2017 Preakness Stakes: Results, payouts, order of finish. With Senior Investment going off at 30-1, the $1 trifecta paid off at $1,097.30 and the $1 superfecta, with Lookin At.
- Cloud Computing Wins Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. The biggest race of the weekend - the second jewel of the Triple Crown - the $1.5 million G1 Preakness Stakes went down Saturday, May 20 at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. Some of the best three year olds around took to Pimlico's dirt track and raced 1 3/16 miles.
- Even though the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico has not been kind to longshots in recent years, the 2017 Preakness winner Cloud Computing proved a horse can still win the Preakness at a price. He went off at 13-1 and paid $28.80 to win. And that was for trainer Chad Brown! The exacta that year with second-choice Classic Empire paid $98.40.
$579,890 Trifecta Pool $13,251,251 Pick 3 Pool $780,037 Pick 4 Pool $2,665,640 Pick 5 Pool $1,869,866 Pick 6 Jackpot Pool $370,759 Last Raced #Horse M/Eqt.A/SWt PP St ¼ ½ ¾ Str Fin Jockey Odds $1 08Apr17¨§Aquª 2Cloud Computing L 3C126 2 2 3¨ 3² 3² 2ª 1² Castellano J 13.40.
As disappointing as the win results are for the new shooters, their presence in the exacta and trifecta is far more interesting. In the money statistics show a record of 17: 2-8-2 for the best finish of a new shooter in the Preakness, that’s a percentage of 70.5%. In three of those years, new shooters accounted for two of the top three finishers.
No matter how you try and spin the statistics, the Kentucky Derby horses have dominated the Preakness. Since 2000, of the 15 who have backed up their success at Churchill Downs with a victory in Pimlico’s signature event, there were seven Derby winners and one Kentucky Oaks winner. In addition, on nine different occasions the Derby horses have dominated the race. Five times they won the entire trifecta. In 2013 led by Oxbow, the Derby horses finished first through fifth. In 2005 Afleet Alex led the charge as Triple Crown experience was key since those horses took the top six out of seven places.
The past two years a new shooter finished second at very big odds. Last year it was Cherry Wine at odds of 17.30-1 and the year before it was Tale of Verve at 28.50-1. The $2 Exaggerator-Cherry Wine exacta paid $88.40 and the 2015 American Pharoah-Tale of Verve exacta returned $124.40. That year when new shooter Divining Rod got third place, the $2 trifecta yielded $985.
Of the 15 new shooters who have hit the board six made their last start before the Preakness at Keeneland, six at Aqueduct, two had the home course advantage of Pimlico, and one was from Santa Anita. Of these horses all but two of them were at double-digit odds with Magic Weisner leading the way at 45.70-1.
With the injury to Royal Mo the other day, the chances for this group of new shooters took a very big hit. Conquest Mo Money and Cloud Computing have the best resumes with top three placings on the Kentucky Derby Trail and the best speed figures. Multiplier, Term of Art, and Senior Investment like to run from well off the pace and this could set them up to make a run for a top three finish, but all three of them have not had success against the best three-year-olds. Lancaster Bomber, who was last seen in America running second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, is a possible starter for Aidan O'Brien.
Conquest Mo Money did have enough points to get into the Derby field, but was not nominated for the Triple Crown. His owners passed on the supplemental nomination for the Run for the Roses to give their horse more time to prepare for Baltimore. He is the most likely new shooter to contest the second jewel.
However, history is not on the side of the new shooters winning the Preakness, so I do not see a member of the Class of 2017 becoming the first non-Derby horse to win in 11 years. I give them an outside chance to hit the board, although I really feel that the Triple Crown veterans will sweep the Preakness trifecta this year.
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Preakness 2017 Trifecta Results
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Authentic,Art Collector and Pneumatic make up the top three PreaknessStakes selections for this blog, followed by a wider variety of optionsfor the lower spots. Putting those three horses into a multi-race wager is easyenough, or even just Authentic if the budget is low, but now is the time to constructa vertical wager.
Unlike the failed Derby backwheel featuring Attachment Rate, this trifecta willtake the standard pyramid structure and spread in the third slot rather than ontop. But using all three picks in the first slot can make this ticket becomeexpensive quickly with a questionable return.
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Instead, this standard trifecta wheel will key Authentic ontop. His win requires a good break because he runs in a one-dimensional pacesetting style,but trainer Bob Baffert knows how to take a speedy Derby winner and capture the Preakness.He won the Derby/Preakness double with Justify in 2018, American Pharoah in2015 and War Emblem in 2002.
The second row of this pyramid structure will contain Art Collector andPneumatic. As stated in the earlier PreaknessOdds and Analysis piece, both of them are talented and on the upswing.The former is undefeated this year with impressive victories in the Blue GrassStakes (G2) and Ellis Park Derby, while the latter took the Pegasus Stakes atMonmouth with a career-best 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure.
Each of them is capable of winning with a bad trip for Authentic, but inorder to save and spread in third, the two runners are relegated to second.
As for the third slot, it features Art Collector and Pneumatic as well, and allthe horses labeled as “Use underneath” in the Odds and Analysis piece. Those underneath-onlyhorses are Mr. Big News, Swiss Skydiver, Max Player andLiveyourbeastlife.
Ideally, the horse in third will be a double-digit long shot to counterbalancethe odds on Authentic and Art Collector, or even Pneumatic. Pneumatic is 20-1, buthis actual price is unclear because he is gaining momentum from other publichandicappers attempting to avoid the two favorites, making it possible his odds fall significantly.
Here is the final structure.
Trifecta wheel: 9 / 3,10 / 2,3,4,8,10,11
That is a $10 ticket for $1.
What if Authentic wins and an unexpected horse finishes second?
Betting the top key with a win bet covers the scenario. Assuming Authenticstays at his 9/5 morning line odds and wins the Preakness, a $10 win bet on himcovers the trifecta wheel if the second or third row misses the actual finisherin that slot.
In fact, a $10 win bet on a winning 9/5 horse returns $28, giving the better an$8 profit if he spent $10 on the trifecta wheel and $10 on the winbet. Keep an eye on TVG to see if it offers a “Money Back Special” promotionon the Preakness. In most cases, it offers up to a $10 refund on a single winwager if the horse finishes second or third.
If Authentic throws a clunker, that is gambling. But right now, there is noreason not to believe in his chances. He won the Kentucky Derby and owns a 6-5-0-1 record under a two-timeTriple Crown winning trainer in Baffert. As long as he breaks well, expect a quality effort.
2020 Preakness Stakes (G1)
| # | Silks | Horse / Sire | Rank | Rating | Trainer / Jockey | Last Start | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excession Union Rags |
| S. Asmussen S. Russell | 30-1 | |||
| 2 | Mr. Big News Giant's Causeway |
| W. Calhoun G. Saez |
| 12-1 | ||
| 3 | Art Collector Bernardini |
| T. Drury B. Hernandez, Jr. | 5-2 | |||
| 4 | Swiss Skydiver Daredevil |
| K. McPeek R. Albarado |
| 6-1 | ||
| 5 | Thousand Words Pioneerof the Nile |
| B. Baffert F. Geroux | 6-1 | |||
| 6 | Jesus' Team Tapiture |
| J. D'Angelo J. Toledo |
| 30-1 | ||
| 7 | Ny Traffic Cross Traffic |
| S. Joseph, Jr. H. Karamanos | 15-1 | |||
| 8 | Max Player Honor Code |
| S. Asmussen P. Lopez |
| 15-1 | ||
| 9 | Authentic Into Mischief |
| B. Baffert J. Velazquez | 9-5 | |||
| 10 | Pneumatic Uncle Mo |
| S. Asmussen J. Bravo |
| 20-1 | ||
| 11 | Liveyourbeastlife Ghostzapper |
| J. Abreu T. McCarthy | 30-1 |
|
