True Count Blackjack

• The blackjack card counting system is used to understand if the next hand will be favorable to the dealer or the player. As the true count rises.
• Look no further for tips and tricks when playing at online casinos. Bring the house down with this blackjack strategy for live and virtual games!
• Optimal Blackjack Strategy The rules of play 1. The number of players. At most blackjack tables, there is one dealer and from one to six players. The player to the dealer’s left receives his cards.
• BlackJack players can learn BlackJack, Card Counting, Betting Strategy, and Money Management using Learn-To-Count BlackJack free evaluation shareware software for download.

Card Counting is the most common trick of the trade people use to increase their odds at Live Blackjack tables. It may sound daunting, but if you can nail it then you will feel the rewards coming.

Blackjack Running Count, True Count, and Player Advantage Simulator

The following Excel spreadsheet simulates the dealing of 6 decks of cards at random. It graphs the running count, true count, and player advantage as the cards are dealt. When counting cards, you should make your minimum waiting bet when the player advantage is zero or negative. When the player advantage goes positive, you should bet a percentage of your bankroll equal to your player advantage, according to the Kelly Criterion.

Instructions

1. If necessary, bring the two graphs into view using the scroll bar:
   Running count / True count
   Player advantage %
   
2. To deal another 6 decks and update the graphs, first click to select any cell (such as K4), then press the F9 key. Press F9 again for another 6 decks. If your device does not have an F9 key, reload the page.
   

Notes

• To see graphs for a single-deck or double-deck game, click the 'Single' or '2 decks' tab at the bottom of the window.
  
• If you accidentally modify a cell value or formula, you might ruin the graph. To fix it, reload the web page.
  
• Another way to deal 6 decks is to click the Refresh icon( )at the bottom of the spreadsheet window.
  

Instructional Videos

Running Count

True Count

Two Decks

Six Decks 3:2 6:5

Running Count / True Count Graph

The running count (grey graph line) keeps track of the number of high vs. low cards using the classic Hi-Lo count strategy, where cards 2-3-4-5-6 have a value of +1, cards 7-8-9 have a value of 0, and cards 10-J-Q-K-A have a value of -1. The count at the beginning is zero. The count at the end is also zero, because the numbers of low and high cards are balanced.
As the cards are dealt, the count randomly varies between positive and negative values, depending on whether more low or high cards are dealt out. The graph is equally likely to be above or below zero.
The true count (blue graph line in top graph) is the running count divided by the number remaining decks to be dealt. This adjusts the running count to determine the true effect, fraction-wise, on the probability of dealing out high or low cards from the remaining decks. For this reason, I prefer to call this the 'true-effect count' or 'one-deck equivalent count.'

Player Advantage Graph

The player advantage graph shows your advantage as a percentage of your bet. For example, when your advantage is 1.00 percent and you make a $20 bet, your average win on that bet will be 20 cents. Not a huge advantage by any means!
You have an advantage when the graph goes above zero, as indicated by the solid black horizontal line. The dashed horizontal purple line - - - - - - - represents the basic strategy player edge for a typical good 6-deck game, -0.6 percent. The player advantage graph is centered on the dashed purple line; it is equally likely to be above or below this line. Thus, you play at a disadvantage more than half the time.
The player advantage graph is shown solid for the first 4.5 decks and dashed for the remaining 1.5 decks. This is because most casinos shuffle when there are 1.5 decks remaining. That means you will not have any opportunities to make bets in the dashed portions of the graph.
You can place a bet only at the end of each round. At an uncrowded table, maybe 12 or so cards are dealt in each round, on average. Therefore, I've spaced the card number labels at the bottom at intervals of 12. These represent (approximately) the intervals at which you can place bets.
Cell N2 contains the basic strategy player advantage at the start of the game, -0.60 percent by default. For a game that pays only 6:5 on blackjack, the player advantage is worse by 1.4 percent. To see the effect of a 6:5 payoff, enter -2.00 into cell N2.

Player Advantage Pie Chart

The pie chart shows the relative amounts of time that you play at an advantage, at a disadvantage, and even with the casino. A player edge between -0.25 and +0.25 percent is considered even. The pie chart applies only to the part of the graph before the shuffle.

For More Information

For more about card counting, see Does Card Counting Really Work? (web page or YouTube video)
Or see the whole YouTube playlist 'Easy basic strategy, house edge, and card counting'
For another good introduction to card counting, see The Wizard of Odds website

For a very good and free online book on blackjack, see ModernBlackjack, An Illustrated Guide to Blackjack Advantage Play, by Norman Wattenberger
For a detailed technical look at the game, see Wattenberger's How Blackjack Works

Card counting is a system that experienced blackjack players use to get a profitable advantage over the casino. There are many individual “counts” or systems. Many of them are named after colorful professional gamblers from times past.

The 2008 movie “21” bought card counting to the attention of the general public. It followed the true story of members of the MIT blackjack team as they won millions from casinos in LasVegas. This movie also highlighted the key challenge faced by card counters. To make a profit using these systems, you need to bet significantly more when the odds turn in your favor. Casinos are aware of this — and will quickly ban players they believe are counting cards.

This page has everything you need to know to get started with card counting. Below you will find the basics of how it works. Famoussystems, the ideal games for counters and how online blackjack can help you learn to count are also covered below.

How to count cards in blackjack

Blackjack is a game of incomplete information. Players act based on their own two cards and the single dealer up-card. Players must risk busting in many situations, even though the decisions are mathematically correct.

Small cards are the enemy of blackjack players. Values of two through six can make for the trickiest decisions. In fact, if you remove any significant number of small cards from the shoe, blackjack not only becomes easier, the player gets a mathematical edge over the house.

This is where card counting comes in.

Counters track the proportion of small cards to face cards and aces. At a certain point, the deck turns “positive.” The higher proportion of face cards means every hand played will generate long term profit for the player — not the house. This is because profit comes from doubling, splitting and hitting blackjack (natural21). All of these are more frequent when there are more high cards in the shoe.

To take advantage of this edge, counting players must boost their bet size. Without this bet size boost, money spent playing while waiting for the deck to turn positive would cancel out any wins.

There are multiple factors that affect whether a specific game is a candidate for card counting. The number of decks of cards in play, the rules on splitting and doubling down, and how the dealer reacts to a soft 17 all come into play. To get the best from counting cards, you need to find the games with the lowest house edge.

Level 3 card counting systems & true count explained

Card counting systems have three levels of complexity. The simplest systems are Hi-LoCounts. You count low cards as +1 and high cards as -1. The higher the count, the bigger the proportion of high cards to low cards.

Advantage players will increase their bets once a specific count is reached. To be sure that they have an advantage, they need to translate the current total into the “true count” first. This involves dividing the count by the number of decks still in play. If the count is +10, with five decks remaining in a six-deck shoe, then the “true count” is 10/5 = 2. This means games like double-deck blackjack are better for counting. Players do not need to play through those first decks in the shoe while waiting for the true count to be positive.

Level two and level three counting systems are more accurate. They assign +2 to some cards and +1 to others. This splits the twos and sevens from cards three throughsix, with some systems also counting nines differently. There are systems with separate counts for aces. Your bet sizes need to increase in line with the positive count — for example adding a unit every time the true count increases by two points.

If you are new to cardcounting, then a simple Hi-Lo Count is the place to start. Once you have mastered keeping track of the count while playing each hand perfectly and chatting with the other players, you will be ready to move to the next level.

Examples of card counting systems

The systems below range from level one to three. These are five of hundreds of possible systems, giving you an overview of how different systems vary in their complexity.

• Hi-Lo Count: This is a balanced count and is the first system that new counters use. You add one to the total for each card value from two through six — and subtract one for 10s through aces. Seven, eight and nine are neutral. You then divide this count by the number of undealt decks and round up as needed. You should increase your bets when the count is positive — betting more the larger the positive number that you count. The advantage of the Hi-Lo system is simplicity. Compared with other blackjack counts, Hi Lo card counting does lackprecision.
• Hi-Opt1 and 2: These systems were developed by LanceHumble, though they can be traced back to the 1960s. There are many more“neutral”cards compared to the Hi-Lo Count. Hi-Opt 1 uses aces, twos, sevens, eights and nines as zero for the count. Three, four, five and six are +1, and 10s through kings are -1. This system works best for single deckgames. Hi-Opt 2 makes 10s through kings -2 on the count, with +2 for fours and fives, +1 for twos, threes, sixes and sevens. Aces, eights and nines are neutral. These are accurate systems, though with single deck games rare (and closely watched), it can be difficult to find a suitable game to use them.
• Ace-Five System: You will need to double your bet repeatedly as the count increases to make the Ace-Five System work. This is a simple count, involving only aces andfives. Every time a five is dealt, you add one, and every ace you see removes one. When the count is +2, you double your bet. Increasing it again for every +2 that gets added. If the count reverts to +1 or less, you go back to your initial bet size. The key advantage of this system is the simplicity. The always-changing bet size is likely to attract the attention of casino pit bosses.
• Uston Advanced Count: Ken Uston was a famous card counter, known for his flamboyant lifestyle. His most complex system is the “Uston Advanced Count.” Aces count as zero in this system. Fives are +3; 10s through kings are -3; nines are -1; twos and eights are +1; and threes, fours, sixes and sevens are +2. As with the other systems, you increase your bets in line with how positive the count gets — keeping the number of decks in mind. This system is designed to work best with a separate count of theaces. The complexity means that it is for experienced card counters only.
• KO Counting System: This system works like Hi-Lo, with an extra feature involving the insurance against dealer blackjack bet. It counts cards two through seven as +1, eight and nine as neutral and 10 through ace as -1. You should increase your bet at +2 or more (based on the true count). At +3 or greater, the insurance side bet becomes profitable and should be taken.

Which blackjack games are best for card counting?

Big casino resorts in Las Vegas, AtlanticCity, downtown Detroit and elsewhere run a wide selection of blackjack games. At the lowest buy-ins (typically $5 and up per hand), the rules give the casino a huge edge over theplayers. Examples include paying 6:5 instead of 3:2 for blackjack, limiting doubles after splits and having the dealer hit on soft 17. These unfavorable rules can easily boost the house edge to 3% or even more. With six or eight decks, getting a true count can be difficult.

Contrast this with the best games. An ideal setup is a single deck game, with liberal splitting/doubling rules, dealer standing on soft 17, late surrender and 3:2 for blackjack. With a house edge of 0.5% orless, these games are restricted to the high-limit rooms. This type of game is most likely to be closely monitored. Suddenly increasing your bet would be an instant trigger for experienced casino staff to watch closely.

Successful counters look for games with the lowest natural houseedge. They know the basic blackjack card counting strategy perfectly, so as not to give any edge back to the casino in the form of mistakes. If you do not know how to adapt blackjack strategy to subtle differences in the rules, then you are not yet ready to learn card counting techniques.

Is counting cards illegal in the US?

Counting cards is legal, unless you are using a mechanical or electronic device to help you keep track of the cards. Casinos do not want card counters in their games. People who are suspected of counting will be asked to leave the casino. Repeat offenses can see players banned — with trespass laws coming into effect if they attempt to return.

In 1979, Ken Uston took a casino in Atlantic City to court, challenging its right to ban “skilled” players. The court found in his favor. Rather than banning players, AC casinos now implement measures to stop card counting from working. They include regularshuffling, limiting players to flat bet sizes on each shoe and not allowing players to join a game mid-shoe.

Elsewhere, casinos will quickly ban players caught counting. This was the reason that the MIT team played in pairs. One player (betting small) would keep count, then signal to the big bet player when the count was positive. This player could then join the table, betting big amounts, while the original counter continued with smaller bets.

True Count Blackjack Edge

Card counting in other casino games

Very few casino games use a shoe containing several decks of cards. Casino poker variations like Caribbean stud or Ultimate Texas Hold ’em have a continual shuffle system, where a fresh shuffled deck is used for each hand. Baccarat does use a shoe, though it is not suitable for counting due to the complex scoring rules. Edge sorting is used in baccarat, though it is considered illegal in many jurisdictions.

This leaves blackjack variations like Spanish 21 and Free Bet Blackjack as the only candidates for card counting systems. Many variations of blackjack have a higher house edge than the main game. Spanish 21 removes 10s from the deck — starting the count on a negative.

Experienced advantage players use card counting to beat optional side bets. This requires a separate understanding of how each side bet works, with a counting system developed separately. Separate aces counts in blackjack can determine when the insurance against dealer blackjack bet becomes profitable.

Is it possible to count cards online?

Online casinos in regulated states have both live dealer and software-based blackjack options. They also have a range of games with different rules and side bets. Add in the game variations based on the 21 concept — and you will find a wide array of choices.

Advantage play through card counting is not possible at online casinos. Software based games use random number generator software to shuffle the cards for every hand. This means no count is possible. Live dealer games that are dealt in real time use eight deck shoes. What they do differently from brick and mortar casinos is reshuffle after around half of the cards are dealt. This makes it hard to spot situations where there is a positive true count. Add to this software that will instantly detect the bet sizing changes associated with counting.

What you can effectively do online is practice your counting skills. There are live dealer rooms at many of the biggest online casino brands, including Golden Nugget and BetMGM. You can enjoy a game and learn to keep score of the count while you play. Starting with simple systems like Ace-Five and Hi-Lo is ideal — you can move on to the more advanced systems as you gain experience.

If you live in a state with legal online casinos, make sure you keep a close eye on the casino bonus and promotion offers. You never know when a bonus aimed at blackjack players will become available.

Wrapping up: Card counting in blackjack

Counting Cards Blackjack Game

Card counting has been a part of blackjack since the1960s. Famous players including Humble and Uston published books on beating the house. Many of them are now considered among the classics of gambling literature.

Counting cards in blackjack gives you an edge over the house when there are relatively more high cards in the deck. This takes advantage of the player’s option to split, double down and to take insurance against dealer blackjack. Counting systems are graded into three levels, depending on their complexity. More complex systems are more accurate — though harder to use.

There is an Achilles’ heel for card counters. To make your knowledge of the count profitable, you need to significantly boost your bet sizes when the odds are in your favor. These bet size increases are a flag to casino staff to watch your play closely — which leads to card counters being banned. Card counting is not illegal, unless you use a device to help you keep track.

How To Calculate True Count Blackjack

Online casinos are the perfect place to practice your card counting skills. You will not be able to get an advantage from them — as safeguards are in place. Live dealer casinos show a real table, making this the ideal way to find the right card counting system for you ahead of your next visit to a brick and mortar casino.