Melbourne Cup Fixed Odds

Huge wins possible. Last year, the correct Melbourne Cup Trifecta result would have netted you $2953.40. MELBOURNE CUP FIRST FOUR BET: Not easy, but predict the 1st, 2nd,3rd and 4 th Melbourne Cup finishing horses in the correct order to win the First 4 dividend. Paid out an amazing $79 381.40 for a $1 wager in 2019. Each horse in the Melbourne Cup will have its own odds depending on what people have bet on and what the bookmaker you are betting with thinks is the horse most likely to win the race. You have probably seen Black Caviar throughout her career, if you have you would have seen her odds. ANTHONY VAN DYCK (Ire) 58.5KG. Jockey: Hugh Bowman. Trainer: Aidan O'Brien.

Australia’s iconic sporting event – the Melbourne Cup – will see more than 100,000 punters pack into Flemington Racecourse this Tuesday, while those at work around the country pause to tune in to The Race.

More than 700 million people worldwide are expected to watch the 154th running of the Melbourne Cup – and it will be all the more exciting for those who have a little money invested in the result.

For those casual punters looking to make their one yearly bet on the horses, we take a quick look at how the odds and payouts work and what (if any) sensible betting choices can be made.

How odds work

The odds given to each of the 24 horses running in the Melbourne Cup this year (before any scratchings) are typically presented as a dollar amount. For example, at the time of writing, Protectionist was listed at A$7. This means that for every dollar you bet on Protectionist to win, you will receive A$7 back, should it win. This includes the A$1 you bet, so your profit will be A$6 per dollar bet.

To convert this dollar amount to losing:winning odds, you can mentally split the A$7 payout into the A$6 of profit and A$1 outlay and read off odds of 6:1. To take another example, Fawkner at A$8.50 (at time of writing) corresponds to odds of 7.5:1, or 15:2 if we double both numbers to make them nice and whole.

If you’d prefer to convert these odds to probabilities, you’ll need to add up the two numbers to obtain the total number of possibilities (winning or losing). Protectionist’s odds of 6:1 means that he’s expected to have 6 losses for every 1 win. That’s one win out of (6+1) races, so the probability he will win is 1 in 7. Note that we could have started from the dollar amount – A$7 – and gone straight to the probability of 1 in 7.

But how are these chances figured out in the first place?

In contrast to games such as Two-Up, where the chances of seeing two heads on a pair of flipped coins can be easily calculated, the situation is far too complex in horse-racing, involving far too many variables for the probability of a given horse’s victory to be calculated.

Instead, bookmakers take an initial list of odds – say it’s 1 in 24 (or 23:1, or A$24) for each horse (although the reality is a little more complicated). Then the bookmakers watch how the punters are betting and continually adjust these odds to “balance the books” and ensure a profit. In a nutshell, the more bets a horse attracts, the lower its payout will be adjusted (and vice-versa).

This means that odds are continually changing in the lead-up to the big race. For this reason, it’s important to know the difference between making a fixed odds bet and a parimutuel bet (also known as a totes bet). Also, for most off track betting only totaliser bets are legal.

In a fixed odds bet, the odds displayed at the time you make your bet are locked in for your bet. Although the odds may change later, if you place a bet at A$7 you are guaranteed a A$7 payout for every dollar you bet, even if the odds shortened to A$3 after you placed the bet. (Be assured any legal odds maker knows more about the true odds than all but the most skilled betters.)

In the 2014 Melbourne Cup, fixed odds bets can be made when betting on a horse to win or place (in 1st, 2nd or 3rd).

But the fixed odds system cannot be used for more exotic bets – fairly recent inventions to get folks out to the tracks – such as a quinella (picking the horses who place 1st and 2nd) or trifecta (picking the horses who finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd).

In a parimutuel bet – also known as a totaliser (or totes) bet – the odds displayed at the time you make your bet are only an approximation of what your payout will be if you win. This approximation improves as the race draws closer.

If you place a bet on a particular horse to win, and it does, you will split a pool of winnings amongst all other punters who made the same bet. So parimutuel bets are like betting on most state or national lotteries (except that the lotteries keep way more of the money for “good causes”).

Why odds are skewed on big race days

The crucial difference between the fixed odds bet and the totes bet is that in the latter, your payout is unknown until after the race is over. Since you are in a betting pool when you make a totes bet, the more punters make the same bet as you, the more ways you will have to split the pool. Hence, if you enter into a totes bet, you will want to avoid what others are doing!

In particular, since there are a very large number of people betting on the Melbourne Cup relative to other horse races, this can lead to some weird skewing of odds.

For example, the payout of the favourite winning gets smaller and smaller as more punters take that bet. If a large number of punters bet on the favourite to win, the payout can actually drop to such a large extent that it becomes less than the payout for the favourite simply placing!

Taking a less common bet (such as betting on your horse to place), which has higher chances of paying out (since your chosen horse only has to finish within the top three for you to collect) then becomes an effective betting strategy. A Businessweek article explains this phenomena (in the context of American horse racing) in more detail.

Since the payouts in totes bets are an approximation that gets better as the race draws nearer, it’s often worth waiting before placing your bet. In contrast, if you really want to back the favourite, perhaps fixed odds are the best way to go (so you avoid your winnings being diluted as more people make the same bet). In that case you’d want to get your bet in reasonably early, before the odds on the favourite drop too much.

What horse should you bet the house on?

Unfortunately, it takes years of experience and following the progress of the participating horses to have good prospects for betting – and even then, you can only ever have good long-term prospects. Success in any given race is never guaranteed. That said, you can increase your chances of a win by a small amount with a little care – you can certainly get better chances than the random draw of the office sweepstake!

To that end, we’ll finish with some advice from the experts, which we’ll certainly be following as we make our own bets on race day.

Long-time punter John Beedle of Ashfield offered the following strategy to the novice punter when one of us spoke to him this week:

The most important things to look at are the state of the track, the experience of the horse and the betting […] once the field is set, look up the odds in the paper and make your pick from within the top six horses. Don’t back the favourite, they rarely win and lots of other punters will be betting on them anyway.

Make sure your pick has already won a race over at least 2,400m (the Melbourne Cup is 3,200m, and some horses just fall to pieces over that distance). If rain falls on the track, make sure your pick can handle a wet track. I’d say place a bet each way (that is, a bet that your horse either wins or places). If you make a bet at A$4 – A$7, you probably have about the same chance of winning as the favourite […] but you stand to gain more money.

Long-time bookmaker Jack Ashman of New Lambton Heights has perhaps the most important advice to offer:

The worst thing a punter can do is to chase their money – that’s how they get into trouble. It’s a failure of the human brain […] they think they can get it back but they end up losing too much money before realising it’s not as easy as that.

One particular punter lost A$1,000 on an almost sure thing, which was probably more than he could really afford to lose. Then another sure thing came up, so he put another A$1,000 on it, and by the end of the afternoon he’d lost A$6,000. Not good! Set a fixed amount that you’re willing to bet and have the discipline to stick to it.

We hope you have an exciting race and a fun afternoon – and remember to gamble responsibly. A A$10 bet is more than enough to get the blood pumping as your horse rounds the turn into the final dash …

The Lexus Melbourne Cup is the centerpiece race of the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival. The 3200m handicap race open to thoroughbreds three years or older is considered as the most prestigious race in Australia. With a prize money of $8M, it is the richest two-mile handicap horse race in the world and one of the richest races of turf.

It is organized by the Victoria Racing Club and held at the Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne, Australia. The event starts at 3 pm on the first Tuesday of November every year and because that day is an official public holiday in Victoria since 1877, the race is literally referred to as “the race that stops a nation”.

The 2019 Melbourne Cup will be on November 5, 2019. The gates of the Victoria Racing Club will open at 8:30 am ( AEST ), with the first race starting at 11:00 am and the last race happening at 5:20 pm. The 2019 Lexus Melbourne Cup is Race #7 of 10 races and will be run at 3:00 pm AEST.

Hundreds of horses are nominated to the race each year but after balloting and handicapping, the list is trimmed down to the final field of 24 horses after the running of the Lexus Stakes on Derby Day. That’s because the Lexus Stakes decides the final spot in the Melbourne Cup field. The barrier draw takes place on Victoria Day.

Of the 24 horses in the field, only the Top 10 will receive cash prizes. With a pool of $8M, it will surely be a windfall for the winner who will also receive and 18k solid gold Hardy Brothers trophy worth an estimated $175K. With significant prizes awaiting the winner, the 2019 Melbourne Cup is indeed the most prestigious race in Australia.

Makybe Diva is the winningest horse in the Melbourne Cup, winning the race three years in a row from 2003-2005. When it comes to Jockeys, Bobby Lewis and Harry White each have four victories in the Melbourne Cup. Lewis won in 1902, 1915, 1919 and 1927 while White triumphed in 1974, 1975, 1978 and 1979. As for trainers, Bart Cummings is unparalleled with 12 wins in the race. Sheila Laxon is the first woman to train a winner, achieving the feat with Ethereal in 2001.

Last year, Cross Counter won the 2018 Melbourne Cup. He was ridden by Kerrin McEvoy and trained by Charlie Appleby. Marmelo placed second while A Prince of Arran finished in third place. This year, Cross Counter is the ante-post horse racing betting favorite to win again.

Here are the odds to win the 2019 Melbourne Cup. Odds were taken from MyBookie.ag as of 10/05/19:

Who Are The Favorites?

Cross Counter is a 4-year old bay gelding owned by Godolphin and trained by Charlie
Cross Counter is a 4-year old bay Gelding trained by Charlie Appleby and owned by Godolphin. Cross Counter was gelded after two minor wins and then returned in the summer of 2018. This horse won the G3 Gordon Stakes, was second in the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes and finished 4th in the King George V Stakes. Then he finished 2018 by becoming the first British-trained horse to win the Melbourne Cup. This year, he won the Dubai Gold Cup G2 last March, finished 4th in the Ascot Gold Cup last June and 3rd in the Goldwood Cup, both G1 races. In his most recent start, he finished 4th in the Irish St. Leger last September 15th.

Mustajeer is a six-year-old Gelding owned by David Spratt and trained by Ger M. Lyons. This Great Britain-bred horse finished second in the Vintage Crop Stakes- G3 last April and third in the Tattersalls Gold Cup-G1 last May. After finished 5th in the Curragh Cup-G2, Mustajeer won his first race of the year by topping the 2019 Heritage Handicap at York Racecourse.

Marmelo is a 6-year old bay stallion owned by The Fairy Story Partnership and trained by Hughie Morris. He has won two out of his five starts this year, including his most recent one- the Prix Kergorlay last August 18th at the Deauville La Toques. Marmelo finished second behind Cross Counter in the 2018 Melbourne Cup.

Constantinople is a three-year-old colt owned by Michael B. Tabor, John “Susan” Magnier and Derrick Smith and trained by Aidan O’Brien. After winning the Gallinule Stakes-G3 last May at Curragh, he has finished second in three straight races including the most recent one, the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York last August.

Melbourne Cup 2020 Odds

Who Wins?

As with the other horse races, the odds here are ante-post odds since the final field won’t be Like other horse races, the odds we have right now are ante-post odds since we won’t know the final field of this race until after the Lexus Stakes. Moreover, we aren’t sure if the horses in the current odds board are even going to run the race. Without the final field, we can’t pick a solid winner but when it comes to these ante-post odds, you have to like the current form displayed by the defending race winner, Cross Counter.

Cross Counter has been the favorite in the ante-post betting since July and he’s already proven that he’s in top shape with a win at the Dubai Gold Cup earlier this year. With Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector in his lineage, he has an excellent pedigree and last year, he was ridden by Kerrin McEvoy, who has two Melbourne Cup wins. One thing going against him though is that the Melbourne Cup has not seen a repeat winner since Makybe in 2005. Other than that, Cross Counter is a good ante-post bet. Prediction: Cross Counter

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