How To Build Sports Betting Model
- How To Build A Sports Betting Model In Excel
- How To Build A Sports Betting Model
- How To Build A Sports Betting Model
How to build a Sports Betting Model The most common question I get asked from followers (and even friends) is 'how do you make a sports betting model?' This question isn't easy to answer, because the starting point for each individual varies. Some need to learn statistics first and others just need a few pointers. That said, I'm going to give a high-level overview of where I believe you should. The concept of a winning sports betting system seems simple. If you flip a coin to pick games, you can win 50% of the time. When you factor in the vig charged by bookmakers, you have to win 52% to 53% of the time, depending on the vig you pay, to turn a profit. Now, here is where I think we should decide to do only spread betting and I think I'm going to make a formula that will output a rating of a team based on the four factors. Then I'll assume that the higher rated team should win (don't know by how much) and if my pick to win is the underdog on the spread and there aren't any major injuries on.
Quick stroy behind my basketball betting model. When I started betting, basketball became one of my favourite sports. Why? Because I was was placing bets in my local bookmaker and they simply didn’t move the lines back in late 90’s and at the start of 2000. This was the time, when I started my betting career and I had not idea, that this will be my full-time job 20 years later.
The difference between my lines and my local bookmakers lines
Back then I didn’t have any betting model and didn’t go deep with analysis like I do now. But I understand one thing – and this is the concept of +EV. I knew, that I should never ever bet on so-called winner, but instead of this I must to find the value. The value is always, when you get more for the same price or if you like, the value is when you get more than you would expect.
I was not basketball expert, but I was smarter than my local bookmaker back then. I was checking sharp online bookmakers lines and then I compared with my local bookmaker. I found, that betting on games, where the lines from my bookmaker and those from online sharp bookmakers (like Pinnacle), is very successful.
How it worked back then?
The best sports betting systems all start with a single trend or statistic, and then it snowballs from there. To keep the system relevant, you must constantly build on it, tweak it and adjust it. Or you can make the same if you can find 1,000 people willing to buy picks for $10 a month. The number of sports bettors making $10,000 a month is small, but if you know how to market your services, you have a real chance of making money with less risk than betting on games.
My local bookmaker didn’t create their own odds, they didn’t have any betting experts or math models to create their own lines. They simply opened the same lines on basketball games like Pinnacle and other big online bookmakers. Then they added little bi more juice and this was enough to eat small bettors.
However, there was also a small group of bettors, that understand this and I was among them. I knew, that they opened the same lines than Pinnacle on all basketball games and they opened that lines couple of days before the actual games even started.
But they missed one thing. They didn’t move the lines. And even if they moved them, they were to slow. And I knew it. So, I simply payed attention to those games, where my local bookmaker didn’t move the line and the difference between their lines and Pinnacle lines was big enough to bet on that game. And I can say you, that those differences were pretty big and I made a lot of money back then.
At some point they blocked my bets and all my combinations. The limits were not big, but I send my friends to bet at the same time the same combination and same bets.
Well….this is an example how it worked back then…
On Wednesday, Pinnacle opened the odds on Spanish basketball league games, that would be played on Saturday. Their opening lines on basketball game between Barcelona vs Real Madrid were:
BARCELONA -7 at 1.95 (-105)
REAL MADRID +7 at 1.95 (-105)
My local bookmaker copied those lines and add little bit more juice:
BARCELONA -7 at 1.89
REAL MADRID +7 at 1.89
At the first look, there was no value on this play and I also didn’t have betting model to estimate my own lines or odds to see if I have a value.
But then something happened….
Pinnacle moved the lines. Sometimes those line movements were quick, because of some very important information.
Their odds changed and would be immediately
BARCELONA -2 at 1.95 (-105)
REAL MADRID +2 at 1.95 (-105)
My local bookmaker was not that fast and didn’t move the line so quickly. Sometimes, they didn’t even move it. And the lines on my bookmaker stayed the same. They still offered:
BARCELONA -7 at 1.89
REAL MADRID +7 at 1.89
Of course, I knew, that playing Real Madrid is a vale play now, because my “betting advisor – sharp online bookmaker” – has Real at only -2. In other words, my online bookmaker thinks, that Real will lose this game for 2 points, no more. So, I have +5 points of room with Real +7 at my local bookie.
And this is how I beat a bookmaker back then, just by looking for the difference between my lines (my lines = online bookmakers lines) and my local bookmaker lines. In other words I was looking for a value, where my betting model was simply odds from online bookmakers.
But the things have changed….
Of course this couldn’t last forever. Local bookmakers were smarter and smarter, they started to move the lines very quickly and with the internet there is no bookmaker, that will make such mistakes on a daily basis.
So, I needed to find another way and this is how I started to bet baseball in next few years. But I learned one thing – you will beat a bookmaker only if you will find different lines and odds than they. There is no other way.
Most bettors still didn’t make a step forward…
I quickly realised, that betting on bookmakers will not be profitable anymore. Big bookmakers don’t make big mistakes anymore and small bookmakers don’t do a lot of them. I was an active member on different forums and I also saw, that following other people’s picks will not be profitable anymore, because you’ll never get the same lines and the odds.
With the internet whole sports betting world changed. The lines move all the time and the the best way is to learn how to bet. Sports betting is not like some other speculative businesses, where you trust your money to someone and they will make money for you. In sports betting there are many obstacles, like limiting players from bookmakers and every single bettor is a single story.
Then I decided, that I will start using my own statistics in sports betting…
Next few years I spend analysing the baseball and didn’t pay too much attention to basketball, because of little bit lower bet limits, because of quick line movements and I simply didn’t have enough data for European basketball leagues. Baseball gave me all that with huge data size.
The challenge….
Until 2017 I didn’t pay much attention to basketball betting, I also started with my Underdogchance site and then somebody asked me if I can create a betting model for soccer, for basketball, for tennis,….even for a cycling.
I said myself – why not
I still want to stick with baseball betting, which is my main sport to bet, but because I can help other bettors with their sports too, I decided that I will challenge myself to create betting models for other sports too.
STATISTIC and ANALYTICS is crucial and if you can mix this with other information that you have, you can beat a bookmaker. If you bet without statistics at all, if you rely on intuition, if you rely on public information, if you follow other people’s picks, where you always pay very big price with the odds, you don’t have a chance on the long run. And long run will happen at some point to all of us. Bettors that win in short time will keep betting for sure and they will face “long run” sooner or later. Unfortunately “long run” means also a bankruptcy for most bettors in the world. And one of the key reasons is that they don’t use statistics and analytics at all.
I understand the basic concept in sports betting, I know how to use statistics and I wanted to create something that will be simple and easy to understand for everyone. When I started betting I was always looking for betting models, but they didn’t existed and if they existed, nobody would share them with me. But this is something I wish existed back then.
And this is how it started…
I have created a basketball betting model for my basketball friends and followers, so they can include statistic on a very simple way before they bet.
I didn’t use any complex programming languages, like python, but I wanted to create something in excel or google spreadsheet, which is free. After all those two tools I use for myself too.
I wanted to create a betting model, where you can calculate your own lines for basketball games. Something like information about first lines, that I get from my online bookmaker back then when I was beating my local bookmaker.
The idea was to compare my lines with bookmakers lines and then bet where there is bigger difference.
Because all my work is based on honesty and transparency, I started to share all my bets with my followers and also on some forums.
The success was great and I knew that I have created some tool, that every basketball bettor that don’t use any statistics must have.
With this method $100 bettor would make close to $6000 in 2017…
I understand that there is no perfect betting model, but I also understand, that bookmakers also don’t have perfect numbers, because sport is complex thing. I also understand, that they move the lines because of market.
But if I can pay attention on games only when the difference is enough big between my lines and their lines, I can definitely find some value. Numbers never lie, they are all about the facts.
And this is how I started testing my model for all kind of leagues, except NBA.
The record: 236 – 149 – 7 (61.30%)
Profit (1 unit/bet flat):
Download PDF with the results
This result analysis is made if you bet simple 1 unit flat and didn’t change the stake in this betting period.
The method was used from some of my followers on other sports as well. I didn’t test this model on other sports and the leagues, but I got feedback from others….
After I released my basketball bets, odds dropped quickly
I don’t sell picks, because I believe, that this is wrong focus by bettors/punters. Following other people’s picks never really worked and 99.9% of people are very disappointed with other people picks. No matter if I make a profit on the long run, most bettors will not reach the same yield and profit than me.
Don’t get me wrong, it is not your or my fault, but it is a general problem in sports betting world.
There are definitely bettors who make profit for themselves and there are very successful bettors, but to follow their advice with positive result is very hard in most cases. In dynamic sports betting world, where the odds are changing all the time, it is even harder.
After all, instead of focusing on other people’s picks, bettors can focus on their knowledge and make their own winning picks without paying thousands and thousands of dollars every season.
Because of that, I decided, that I will share this method with you.
The main idea is still that you get your own lines, which you can later combine with your information that you have about basketball leagues.
Blindly following this model….
I didn’t make extra research on those basketball leagues. I simply used my numbers, I projected my own lines and then I bet when the difference was 7 points for the spread and 10 points for the totals.
If you are a basketball bettor, you will have my private method and you can combine it with your analysis, which is amazing and can give you great results.
Would you like to…
Learn how I have created this model?
Learn how I used it?
To have this knowledge forever?
If the answer is YES, then keep reading, because I reveal my private betting model here. I don’t just share some sheet, where you put the numbers. NO.
You get the video (24:16 minutes), where I show you step by step how I have created this. It is very easy to understand, it is easy to follow and after one hour you will have your own betting model for basketball.
Exactly the same that I use for myself.
It is not just about the results…
It’s about including simple statistics into your analysis. Majority of bettors don’t use it at all. For majority of bettors using statistics is too complex. But I show you how you can use statistics on a very simple way.
KNOWLEDGE
Get a knowledge for a lifetime.
Scroll to topNCAA Football Betting Strategies: Guide to the Top Systems
College Football Betting Intro
When we talk about football, we usually think first of the NFL. It is after all America’s most popular sports organization.
As we discussed in our Intro to NFL Betting, the American Gaming Association estimated bettors to have wagered upwards of $4.7 billion dollars on the nation’s most-watched sporting event this past year—the Super Bowl.
And that’s just one estimate. When you look at the global numbers, this figure nearly doubles. Mint, a prominent financial planning website, estimates that bettors stake more than $8 billion every year on the Super Bowl alone.
But the NFL is not the only league to garner such attention from bettors.
NCAA football is right up there with it.
In 2014, Super Bowl XLIX only generated about 10,000 more bets than the most heavily bet college football game
In 2014, Super Bowl XLIX only generated about 10,000 more bets than the most heavily bet college football game: 122,370 compared to 112,644. And, according to CNBC, bettors stake between $60-70 billion in illegal wages on college football each year.
Since the NCAA decided to establish and expand their playoff format, bowl games and championships have proven to be hot opportunities for bettors.
Unlike the NFL, which plays almost all its games on Sunday, college football offers bettors the chance to wage on matchups happening throughout the week, including thirty plus matchups on Saturdays.
A greater slate of games means more money lines, more spreads, more chances to get some bang for your buck.
According to SportsInsights there was a point spread listed for 894 college football games in 2015. Meanwhile, in merely a handful of offshore sportsbooks, a grand total of 12,774,988 bets were placed during the college football season.
With so many options it’s easy to see why college football ranks as one of the most bet-on sports in America.
As part of this article, we will discuss the different types of bets you can make on college games as well as some helpful tips and strategies for maximizing your returns.
But before we get into all that, let’s first take a look at the basics of our very own predictive wager system.
The Sports Analytics Simulator
The Simulator is built based on a predictive model created by a doctor with an extensive background in mathematics, psychology, and operations research.
The best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.
This individual has worked with multiple professional and collegiate sports organizations, player agents, sports data agencies and a top-ranked fantasy website. His work with professional sports organizations includes optimizing scout travel, in-depth player analysis and lineup configurations.
Among his greatest innovations was the discovery of neural networks as a powerful tool for sports betting.
A neural network is defined as a computer system modeled on the human brain and nervous system. Using this technology, the good doctor found that “the best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.”
While the model was initially developed around NBA betting, it has since been applied to other sports — chief among them, college football.
What makes the Sports Analytics Simulator unique is that it relies not on data inputs (statistics) from previous seasons, but on continuous game-to-game updates.
The Simulator’s specific algorithms run through up to forty different stat categories to create the most efficient model possible. From this model, we derive our picks for each game. And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding.
For more information, check out this handy dandy video on how it works:
College Football Betting
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the fundamentals of college football betting. Much like the NFL, college football offers the standard bets: spread, moneyline, totals, parlays, and teasers. Unique to college football are the 1st quarter and halftime bets. Let’s take a look at each type.
Spread Bet
Just like the NFL, college football’s most popular wager is the spread bet.
With spreads, bookmakers set a spread with a favorite and an underdog. This type of bet equalizes the chance of winning a wager.
In order for you to win on a bet of this nature, one team must cover the spread — so if the spread is -7 in favor of the Florida State over Oregon, the Sentinels must win by seven points or more. Whereas in order for the Ducks to cover the spread, they must either lose by less than seven points, or win.
For any spread, the underdog is indicated by a “+” while the favorite is indicated by a “-”. To make it simpler, the spread gives the underdog a ‘head start’. In this case, the Ducks have a +7 head start in points to kick off the game.
Also, when looking at spreads, you’ll see a larger number next to the actual spread. It might look like this:
- Florida State -7 -115
- Oregon +7 -105
The larger number is what’s called the Juice. It’s basically the fee that bookmakers charge for you to place a bet. In our example, if Florida State covers the spread a winning bet of $115 will yield $100 profit. Now, if you simply want to bet on the winner of the game you’ll want to place a…
Moneyline Bet
Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog. Let’s go back to this Florida State-Oregon matchup.
Let’s say the Sentinels have a favored line of -150 and the Ducks have an underdog line of +125. What this means is that in order to win a hundred dollars on the Sentinels, you must wage $150.
As for the underdogs, if you wage $100 you will win $125. Generally, the moneyline reflects the spread.
With the sheer number of available bets on a given Saturday, a bettor may choose to parlay (see below) several big favorites, which will increase the risk AND the payout of the wager. So that’s that.
Totals Bet
Totals betting is rather self-explanatory.
Also known as over/under, this form of betting involves placing a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams combined in a game.
Let’s say bookmakers set an over/under of 32 points for the Sentinels and Ducks. Your job as a bettor is to decide whether the score will be… over or under 32 points.
Prop Bet
A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game.
Prop bets come in many different forms. Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i.e. if a team scores on a specific drive.
During bowl games you’ll see all sorts of fun prop bets like coin toss wagers.
Parlay Bet
You might have seen a parlay bet featured in the film, Silver Linings Playbook, (or read it in the book), wherein Pat Solitano’s father, Patrizio Sr., places a bet on the Eagles-Cowboys game and the judging outcome of Pat and Tiffany’s dance number in a local dance-off.
In order for Patrizio to win the bet, the Eagles must win their game against Dallas and Tiffany and Pat must score 5 out of 10 in their dance competition.
This is what’s known as a parlay bet, wherein various games and outcomes are rubber-banded together into one single bet.
In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet. In college football, this is a common form of betting to increase risk and reward for your wagers.
Teaser Bet
A teaser bet is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten wagers in which you adjust the point spreads and/or totals in your favor in exchange for a lower payout.
When your teaser includes a point spread, you have the option to decrease the spread for the favorite or increase the spread for the underdog.
When you’re teasing a total, you can increase the under or decrease the over.
Like a parlay, winning the bet is dependent on all of the wagers winning.
How To Build A Sports Betting Model In Excel
Standard teasers are 6, 6.5 and 7-point. There’s also a sweetheart teaser, which offers you have the choice to tease a line by 10 or 13 points. It’s basically a parlay with a little bit of zazz.
A teaser involves the same stipulations as a parlay; only you select a number of points to put down to decrease the risk (and reward) of a parlay.
For example, if a spread for a game is -7 and you place a 3-point teaser bet, your new line is -4. This 3-point advantage applies to each aspect of the teaser play.
College Football Betting Stats
How To Build A Sports Betting Model
Now that you know the basics of college football betting, let’s touch on some important factors to consider when handicapping games.
First and foremost, you’ve got to understand the nature of college football. In the NFL, all 32 teams are relatively equal in stature. Size, speed, skill—the NFL is filled with ever-tight competition.
But in college football, the stakes are different. Emotions run high. Motivations change week-to-week, game-to-game.
Up to 70 players can impact the outcome of a given matchup.
Experts have a lot of ideas about what statistics most impact a college football game. The following five, derived from numbers from the 2016 season, have consistently proven their influence on a team’s odds.
Explosiveness – as measured by PPP (points per play)
This one is simple. If a team makes more big plays than their opponent, they’re likely to win the game.
According to statistics, if a team leads in PPP they will win 86 percent of their matchups.
So look for a team with a penchant for big plays, and keep an eye on their opponents’ defensive stats.
If they’re giving up high PPP numbers each week, there’s a good chance they’ll lose.
Efficiency – as measured by success rate.
Success rate is measured by a number of baselines: 50% of needed yards on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.
This stat is similar to on-base percentage in baseball.
If a team has a high efficiency rating, they’re likely to avoid drive-crippling passing downs and, beyond that, stay on schedule, control the clock, and wear down their opponent’s defenses by keeping on the field.
If a team can best their opponent in efficiency, they’ll also win the game 83 percent of the time.
Field Position – as measured by average starting field position
They say special teams wins games. That’s what makes them so special.
Sure, it’s always a boost when a return man can return a kick or a punt for a touchdown. But it’s his ability to consistently provide his team with outstanding starting field position that determines his worth. Hence why good return men are so highly coveted in football.
They are often their team’s x-factor—the difference between having to drive 75 yards or 65 yards to the end zone.
As such, the team who wins the battle for field position wins the game 72 percent of the time.
Finishing Drives – as measured by points per trip inside the 40
Finish what you’ve started.
At this point you might find these tips a bit formulaic. It stands to reason that if a team creates big scoring plays, controls the clock, manages the ball, establishes solid field position, minimizes turnovers, and maximizes scoring drives, they’ll likely win the game.
When it comes to finishing drives, it’s less about how many opportunities you get inside the red zone, and more about how many points you can score once inside the 40.
There are numerous examples of teams creating more red zone opportunities but fewer scores than their opponent.
In 2012, Hawaii created 12 scoring opportunities against Colorado State’s four on October 27. They outgained the Rams by 102 yards, but still lost, 42-27. Talk about demoralizing.
The Warriors lost three turnovers (at the CSU 30, 31, and 33), punted twice (at the CSU 39 and 40), attempted three field goals (missing one), and turned the ball over on downs at the 2. Not to mention one of those three turnovers was an interception returned for a touchdown.
The point is straightforward: teams must score touchdowns on the majority of their drives that reach beyond their opponent’s 40.
Field goals will not cut it.
Basically, if a team can still put points on the board despite fewer scoring opportunities, they’ll win the game 72 percent of the time.
Turnovers – as measured by turnover margin
If we’re not beating a dead horse by now I don’t know what we’re doing.
How To Build A Sports Betting Model
Surprisingly enough turnovers are not the biggest factor to consider when handicapping games. But they still matter.
If you can minimize the amount of times you give up the ball, you’re obviously going to increase your chances of capitalizing on offense.
Keep the ball in your possession, and the game is likely yours—assuming you can put the ball in the end zone. The team that wins the turnover battle wins the game 73 percent of the time.
While mastering these five aspects will go a long way towards helping a team win, bettors must not solely rely on them for handicapping games. College football outcomes swing like a loose pendulum.
Cellar dwellers beat good teams when they’re not looking, or at the very least beat the spread. Slumping squads can come out strong against rivals or must-wins.
Oh, and there are other conferences besides the big ones (SEC, Big 12, Big 10, ACC, Pac 12).
Oddsmakers tend to look at the big TV games and the big conference matchups—the ones they know the betting public will be going heavy on.
This means, smaller conference games will likely slip through the cracks. If you’re betting ‘over/unders,’ look at the smaller conferences as value could be there because of the lack of two-way action.
There is big money to be made in smaller-market games. One thing I’ve learned in life is never to follow the crowd. If you want to outsmart oddsmakers and increase your returns, be your own advocate, look for the games people are sleeping on.
Thankfully, they’re not hard to find in the NCAA.