How To Beat Baccarat

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1. How To Beat Baccarat Everytime
2. How To Beat Baccarat Game
3. How To Beat Baccarat Strategy
4. How To Beat Baccarat By Card Counting

Edward Oakley Thorp (born August 14, 1932) is an American mathematics professor, author, hedge fund manager, and blackjack researcher. He pioneered the modern applications of probability theory, including the harnessing of very small correlations for reliable financial gain.

Thorp is the author of Beat the Dealer, which mathematically proved that the house advantage in blackjack could be overcome by card counting.^[1] He also developed and applied effective hedge fund techniques in the financial markets, and collaborated with Claude Shannon in creating the first wearable computer.^[2]

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Thorp received his Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of California, Los Angeles in 1958, and worked at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) from 1959 to 1961. He was a professor of mathematics from 1961 to 1965 at New Mexico State University, and then joined the University of California, Irvine where he was a professor of mathematics from 1965 to 1977 and a professor of mathematics and finance from 1977 to 1982.^[3]

Computer-aided research in blackjack[edit]

Thorp used the IBM 704 as a research tool in order to investigate the probabilities of winning while developing his blackjack game theory, which was based on the Kelly criterion, which he learned about from the 1956 paper by Kelly.^[4][5][6][7] He learned Fortran in order to program the equations needed for his theoretical research model on the probabilities of winning at blackjack. Thorp analyzed the game of blackjack to a great extent this way, while devising card counting schemes with the aid of the IBM 704 in order to improve his odds,^[8] especially near the end of a card deck that is not being reshuffled after every deal.

Applied research in Reno, Lake Tahoe and Las Vegas[edit]

Thorp decided to test his theory in practice in Reno, Lake Tahoe, and Las Vegas.^[6][8][9]Thorp started his applied research using $10,000, with Manny Kimmel, a wealthy professional gambler and former bookmaker,^[10] providing the venture capital. First they visited Reno and Lake Tahoe establishments where they tested Thorp's theory at the local blackjack tables.^[9] The experimental results proved successful and his theory was verified since he won $11,000 in a single weekend.^[6] Casinos now shuffle well before the end of the deck as a countermeasure to his methods. During his Las Vegas casino visits Thorp frequently used disguises such as wraparound glasses and false beards.^[9] In addition to the blackjack activities, Thorp had assembled a baccarat team which was also winning.^[9]

News quickly spread throughout the gambling community, which was eager for new methods of winning, while Thorp became an instant celebrity among blackjack aficionados. Due to the great demand generated about disseminating his research results to a wider gambling audience, he wrote the book Beat the Dealer in 1966, widely considered the original guide to card counting,^[11] which sold over 700,000 copies, a huge number for a specialty title which earned it a place in the New York Times bestseller list, much to the chagrin of Kimmel whose identity was thinly disguised in the book as Mr. X.^[6]

Thorp's blackjack research^[12] is one of the very few examples where results from such research reached the public directly, completely bypassing the usual academic peer review process cycle. He has also stated that he considered the whole experiment an academic exercise.^[6]

In addition, Thorp, while a professor of mathematics at MIT, met Claude Shannon, and took him and his wife Betty Shannon as partners on weekend forays to Las Vegas to play roulette and blackjack, at which Thorp was very successful.^[13] His team's roulette play was the first instance of using a wearable computer in a casino — something which is now illegal, as of May 30, 1985, when the Nevada devices law came into effect as an emergency measure targeting blackjack and roulette devices.^[2][13] The wearable computer was co-developed with Claude Shannon between 1960–61. The final operating version of the device was tested in Shannon's home lab at his basement in June 1961.^[2] Based on his achievements, Thorp was an inaugural member of the Blackjack Hall of Fame.^[14]

He also devised the 'Thorp count', a method for calculating the likelihood of winning in certain endgame positions in backgammon.^[15]

Stock market[edit]

Since the late 1960s, Thorp has used his knowledge of probability and statistics in the stock market by discovering and exploiting a number of pricing anomalies in the securities markets, and he has made a significant fortune.^[5] Thorp's first hedge fund was Princeton/Newport Partners. He is currently the President of Edward O. Thorp & Associates, based in Newport Beach, California. In May 1998, Thorp reported that his personal investments yielded an annualized 20 percent rate of return averaged over 28.5 years.^[16]

Bibliography[edit]

• (Autobiography) Edward O. Thorp, A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street, How I Beat the Dealer and the Market, 2017. [1]
• Edward O. Thorp, Elementary Probability, 1977, ISBN0-88275-389-4
• Edward Thorp, Beat the Dealer: A Winning Strategy for the Game of Twenty-One, ISBN0-394-70310-3
• Edward O. Thorp, Sheen T. Kassouf, Beat the Market: A Scientific Stock Market System, 1967, ISBN0-394-42439-5 (online pdf, retrieved 22 Nov 2017)
• Edward O. Thorp, The Mathematics of Gambling, 1984, ISBN0-89746-019-7 (online version part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4)
• Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street by William Poundstone
• The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice (World Scientific Handbook in Financial Economic Series), ISBN978-9814293495, February 10, 2011 by Leonard C. MacLean (Editor), Edward O. Thorp (Editor), William T. Ziemba (Editor)

See also[edit]

References[edit]

1. ^Peter A. Griffin (1979) The Theory of Blackjack, Huntington Press, ISBN978-0929712130
2. ^ ^abcEdward O. Thorp. 'The Invention of the First Wearable Computer'(PDF). Edward O. Thorp & Associates. Retrieved April 26, 2010.
3. ^'Founding professor of math donates personal, professional papers to UCI Libraries'. UCI News. UC Irvine. June 12, 2018.
4. ^Understanding Fortune’s Formula by Edward O. Thorp Copyright 2007 Quote: 'My 1962 book Beat the Dealer explained the detailed theory and practice. The “optimal” way to bet in favorable situations was an important feature.In Beat the Dealer I called this, naturally enough, “The Kelly gambling system,” since I learned about it from the 1956 paper by John L. Kelly.'
5. ^ ^abTHE KELLY CRITERION IN BLACKJACK, SPORTS BETTING, AND THE STOCK MARKET by Edward O. Thorp Paper presented at: The 10th International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking Montreal, June 1997
6. ^ ^abcdeDiscovery channel documentary series: Breaking Vegas, Episode: 'Professor Blackjack' with interviews by Ed and Vivian Thorp
7. ^The Tech (MIT) 'Thorpe, 704 Beat Blackjack' Vol. 81 No. I Cambridge, Mass., Friday, February 10, 1961
8. ^ ^ab'American Scientist online: Bettor Math, article and book review by Elwyn Berlekamp'. Archived from the original on April 23, 2007. Retrieved March 18, 2006.CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
9. ^ ^abcdIt's Bye! Bye! Blackjack Edward Thorp, the pensive professor above, is shaking the gambling world with a system for beating a great card game. He published it a year ago, and now the proof is in: it works David E. Scherman January 13, 1964 pp. 1–3 from SI Vault (beta)(CNN) Quotes: 'The unlikely trio was soon on its way to Reno and Lake Tahoe, where Thorp's horn-rimmed glasses, dark hair and fresh, scrubbed face hardly struck terror into the pit bosses. (p. 1)', 'But Edward Thorp and his computer are not done with Nevada yet. The classiest gambling game of all—just ask James Bond—is that enticing thing called baccarat, or chemin de fer. Its rules prevent a fast shuffle, and there is very little opportunity for hanky-panky. Thorp has now come up with a system to beat it, and the system seems to work. He has a baccarat team, and it is over $5,000 ahead. It has also been spotted and barred from play in two casinos. Could it be bye-bye to baccarat, too? (p. 1)' and 'But disguises frequently work. Thorp himself now uses a combination of wraparound glasses and a beard to change his appearance on successive Las Vegas visits. (p. 3)'
10. ^Breaking Vegas “Professor Blackjack.”Archived December 21, 2008, at the Wayback Machine Biography channel Rated: TVPG Running Time: 60 Minutes Quote: 'In 1961, lifelong gambler Manny Kimmel, a 'connected' New York businessman, read an article by MIT math professor Ed Thorp claiming that anyone could make a fortune at blackjack by using math theory to count cards. The mob-connected sharpie offered the young professor a deal: he would put up the money, if Thorp would put his theory to action and card-count their way to millions. From Thorp's initial research to the partnership's explosive effect on the blackjack landscape, this episode boasts fascinating facts about the game's history, colorful interviews (including with Thorp), and archival footage that evokes the timeless allure and excitement of the thriving casinos in the early `60s. '
11. ^'Blackjack Hero profile'. Blackjackhero.com. Retrieved April 26, 2010.
12. ^A favorable strategy for twenty-one. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 47 (1961), 110-112
13. ^ ^ab'Poundstone, William: Fortune's Formula : The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street'. Retrieved April 26, 2010.
14. ^Anthony Curtis. 'Las Vegas Advisor on Ed Thorp'. Lasvegasadvisor.com. Retrieved April 26, 2010.
15. ^Chuck Bower (January 23, 1997). 'Cube Handling in Races: Thorpe count'. bkgm.com. Backgammon Galore. Retrieved May 8, 2013.
16. ^'Thorp's market activities'. Webhome.idirect.com. Archived from the original on October 31, 2005. Retrieved April 26, 2010.

Sources[edit]

• Patterson, Scott D., The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It, Crown Business, 352 pages, 2010. ISBN0-307-45337-5 via Patterson and Thorp interview on Fresh Air, February 1, 2010, including excerpt 'Chapter 2: The Godfather: Ed Thorp'

External links[edit]

• Edward O. Thorp at the Mathematics Genealogy Project

Welcome to the best baccarat strategy resource page online. We’ve put some of the top strategies to test and have provided some tips to help you win more often. You’re going to learn some excellent baccarat tricks to win today. There’s no need for fancy betting systems. Common sense will get the job more often!

Can Baccarat Be Beaten? – Understand The Casino’s Advantage

Any baccarat strategy should consider the house edge when making the various bets. As you can see, it’s never a good idea to make the ‘suckers bet’ by betting on a tie. The banker bet has the lowest house edge, but there’s a catch!

• Banker bets have a house edge of 1.06%
• Player bets have a house edge of 1.24%
• Tie bets have a house edge of 14.4%

Needless to say, don’t make the tie bet! While the banker bet looks most appealing from the table above, don’t forget that most casinos take a commission on banker wins. Player wins don’t pay a commission, so betting on the banker has a slight disadvantage. It’s important to remember when you play baccarat, and it’s why we prefer to make the player bet. Also remember that whatever baccarat strategy you end up using, the house edge won’t change.

Baccarat Strategy – Which Ones Actually Work?

What’s the best baccarat strategy? We’ve tested some of the most common ones here. We’re always adding to this section, so as we hear about new strategies, we’ll put them to the test and list them here. Will an effective baccarat strategy help you win more often? Read these pieces and you’ll find out the best way to play the game of baccarat for your personality type, goals, and available bankroll. Does the baccarat pattern strategy work? What about other strategies? There’s only one way to find out!

• The 1324 Baccarat Strategy – In this piece, we explain how the system works, how it guarantees a win after the second bet, and we’ll show you a real video of us putting it to the test.
• Martingale Baccarat Strategy – We put the riskiest baccarat strategy to the test here. Does this negative progression system work? Find out here.
• The Paroli Baccarat Strategy – This baccarat strategy takes advantage of winning streaks and aims to maximize profits. Learn all about how to use it and whether or not it works here.

We’ll be adding lots of new baccarat strategies as our team discovers, studies, and analyzes them. As you’ll see, we test each strategy, find out if they give you any advantage as a player (such as by reducing house edge), and report our results. You should really read these before you spend real money testing any baccarat strategy.

How to Win at Baccarat – Simple Tips & Tricks

1. Beware the Banker’s Cut!

When you learn baccarat rules you will know it’s normal for the casino sites to take a cut of the proceedings during a game where you bet on the banker to win. This represents the house edge and is how the casino makes its money. Any true winning baccarat system will factor this in.

Keep in mind that the bankers cut should be in and around 5%. If you want to know how to consistently win at baccarat, it’s essential to check this, however, because some casinos will try to take advantage and take as much as a 20% cut for banker bets. Go for the lowest commission every time.

Reading the game terms and conditions is a great way to learn more about this. Alternatively, ask the customer service reps what the banker’s cut is. If you don’t trust them to tell you the truth, you shouldn’t be playing at that particular casino in the first place.

This is left out of most ‘how to win at baccarat’ guides precisely because they’re not out to really teach you how to win. The best bet to make is player in most cases. Only make the banker bet when the player bet has been on a winning streak and you feel it’s about to change. This information should always factor into your baccarat strategy.

2. Baccarat Bankroll Management

This money management tip will help you more than any baccarat pattern reading or slick tricks. It’s very important to take your chips and walk while you’re ahead. It’s too easy to go on a ‘run’ in baccarat and double your money up to 10 times in a row. We’ve personally experienced a huge run, and have watched £100 turn into over £3k at the baccarat tables in about 15 minutes at one of the popular casino sites.

It’s so tempting to keep going, but no matter how slight the house edge is, it is going to catch up eventually and take you out. You have to learn to control those overwhelming brain chemicals that make you feel invincible when you are up a few grand. Walk away before the house takes back everything and sends your mood plummeting. You need to stick to your baccarat game strategy at all costs!

The only way to win baccarat consistently is to keep your head on your shoulders and walk when you’re in the green. Money management is everything. Emotion will always be the undoing of even advanced baccarat players! It’s more important than any baccarat strategy.

Lastly, remember to calculate the banker bet commission in any bankroll management plan.

3. Using Baccarat Bonuses – Read the Fine Print

It’s possible to use a generous casino deposit bonus to really stack your bets and start accumulating large amounts of money risk-free. If you play baccarat online and double it several times in a row, without risking your own cash reserves, you could really start to beat baccarat quite quickly without a lot of risk.

You might be disappointed, though, when you realize that the terms of the bonus dictate that you can’t withdraw your winnings and attempting to do so could cause you to lose everything.

Even at reputable online casinos you can trust, make sure you read the fine print. It’s pretty annoying to realize all that money you’ve won was never real to begin with, until you survive betting it x50 times over, at least!

Here’s an example of a baccarat bonus you don’t want to take:

£100 bonus, minimum deposit £20, wagering x60. £500 conversion limit.

In the above example, there are two things which make this a terrible baccarat bonus. First, the wagering requirements are far too high. You would have to bet £5,000 before you could withdraw the £100 bonus. Second, you can only withdraw £200 of what you win. That’s the conversion limit, and that means this bonus sucks. The minimum deposit is also far too high as compared to the size of the bonus.

Here’s an example of a much better deposit bonus you’ll want to take. We would consider taking this one:

£100% deposit bonus, minimum deposit £20, wagering x20. No conversion limit.

4. Accounting for the Element of Luck

Keep in mind that it doesn’t matter how good your baccarat system is, how well thought out, or how mathematically sure you are that it will work – all casino games involve luck. Anyone who plays baccarat for a living will confirm this. No matter what, lady luck has a role and no baccarat tips and tricks can overcome her influence.

When considering how to win at baccarat, don’t forget that lady luck will ultimately be in charge. Experienced gamblers know she’s either with you or she’s not, and there’s very little your system can do to help that. Even though there are set baccarat odds, lady luck still reigns supreme. Even the best bet (player) won’t win every time.

If you play a few games and it just isn’t happening, walk away and come back another day. Trust your gut instinct, especially if you’re an experienced gambler. Your subconscious is trying to tell you lady luck isn’t around, and betting against that is futile. Hopefully, these baccarat strategy tips will help you.

If you visit a real casino, you’ll see players keeping track of every hand result as in the baccarat table above. The results above don’t include the tie bet, but they would if it had come up. They think they can spot baccarat patterns in it. We’re telling you this is BS. There’s no pattern. Each hand is determined by random chance. Don’t waste your time with baccarat superstitions like this.

5. Manage Your Emotions & Have a Plan

There’s nothing more fatal to a winning baccarat strategy than getting carried away and forgetting the plan. Yet it happens far too often! One of the main reasons we gamble is the rush of it, and going on a roll and seeing those digits stack up in the ‘winnings’ column can really cause you to lose focus and perspective.

Stay sober, shake it off and refocus after a big win. Let the excitement settle, stop playing for a while if you have to, and stick to the game plan.

Never bet more than you set out to play with, walk away when your predetermined number has been met or exceeded, and if you’re playing a strategy like the double down or martingale, don’t change halfway through. Think about it up front, and stick with it ’till the end!

Playing Live Dealer Baccarat – A Better Experience

If you’ve never played live baccarat before, we suggest trying it out ASAP. There’s nothing wrong with the digital games, but playing with a live dealer makes the experience much more enjoyable. There are also some interesting new baccarat variants available in live casinos which you won’t find digital versions of. We’ll walk more about some of them in this section. The good news is that you can use every baccarat strategy above on live games, too.

Lightning Baccarat – In this baccarat game, multiple cards are selected randomly and given multipliers of up to 1,000x. If you win and these cards are included in the winning hand, you’ll win those multipliers. In this way, a simple £1 bet on baccarat could turn into a £1,000 windfall. It’s really worth trying this version of live baccarat.

Dragon Tiger – This isn’t strictly speaking baccarat proper, but it does service from baccarat and belongs to the same family of card games. It’s the simplest game we have ever seen. Two hands are dealt, and whichever has the higher card wins. It’s a much faster-paced game, so you can win (and lose) money much more rapidly.

How To Beat Baccarat Everytime

Speed Baccarat – Evolution Gaming powers this version of live baccarat. As the name suggests, it’s a baccarat game with the speed dial turned up. Every hand will take just half the time of a standard game. If you have a need for speed, try this game.

How To Beat Baccarat Game

Live baccarat does tend to cost a little more to play if you like to bet for the minimum cost per hand. Typically, you’ll pay £1 per bet. High stakes players can wager up to £10,000 per hand in some live baccarat games.

There’s no comparison between live games and digital ones. Since every baccarat strategy will work on live games just as well as on digital games, why not play baccarat at a live dealer online casino? Some of them also have side bets that pay more than the tie bet. Side bets like pairs and perfect pairs make for unlikely but potentially high-paying opportunities.

How to Win Baccarat More Often – A Summary

How To Beat Baccarat Strategy

When you begin learning baccarat strategy, the tables, numbers, and systems can seem mind-boggling and overwhelming. It seems impossible to find simple baccarat systems that work, doesn’t it? Phil Ivey created one, but he paid the price for it by being labelled as a cheat.

That’s just how people who are selling you systems related to how to win in baccarat like to keep things. That way if the “baccarat sure win formula” they sold you doesn’t work they can always fob you off with some math they know you likely don’t understand and bet you’ll go away without saying anything. You’ll lose real money when you use these systems. We’ve even seen card counting strategies for baccarat. They don’t work!

Yet baccarat strategy doesn’t have to be complicated. Sticking to some key playing principles will help you beat baccarat majority of the time. Above are some playing tips that will teach you how to win at baccarat more often, or at least not to make the amateur mistakes which make it easy for the casino to take your bankroll.

So, how to win at real money baccarat, then? Follow these common-sense baccarat tricks to win to learn how. There’s no baccarat secret pattern or cheat. It’s just common sense and improving your chances through understanding how baccarat works and avoiding the most common mistakes.

Before you play for real money, please be aware that beginners should read our ‘How to Play Baccarat‘ article if you don’t know the rules by heart. It won’t make much sense if you don’t understand the basic rules and gameplay of the game of baccarat. Take some time to read it; this is a very easy game with two cards for the player and banker, and extra cards only dealt in some circumstances.

How To Beat Baccarat By Card Counting

When you type ‘how to win baccarat for sure’ into a search engine and are bamboozled with endless tables, numbers systems, and complex looking equations, remember it’s all smoke and mirrors designed to lighten your wallet and get you to buy the system. There are no magical fixes. Effective baccarat strategy is just the same as winning any other casino game. Playing by the great gambling principles laid out above will help you come out on top more than any other system you could pay for, and we’re telling you for free. Oh, and remember, don’t make the tie bet; it may pay well, but you’ll rarely win it!

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